Markets are entering the final week of June with the S&P 500 ($SPX) and its ETF (SPY) remaining stable near recent highs despite ongoing market volatility. Over the past two months, the index has risen more than 25%, underscoring investor confidence. However, such sharp movements also signal the risk of excessive complacency. It is important to remember that this trading week will be shortened due to holidays, yet key events such as employment data, manufacturing reports, and Tesla’s delivery figures could affect market sentiment. Additionally, trade negotiations between the US and China continue to be a major factor influencing market movements.
Here are five key events to watch this week.
1. Manufacturing Sector Overview
The week starts with the release of the Chicago Business Barometer on Monday at 9:45 AM, which will provide the first glimpse of the manufacturing sector's health. On Tuesday, two key indicators follow: the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM, with the latter being considered more influential due to its broader survey base and longer history as an economic leading indicator. The manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, and if the data shows growth, it could boost cyclical and industrial stocks. On the other hand, weak results could raise concerns about a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2025. It is also important to track components of the ISM index, such as prices for manufacturing materials, which could provide additional signals regarding inflationary pressures.
2. Tesla Delivery Figures in the Spotlight
Wednesday will be filled with anticipation for Tesla’s highly awaited Q2 delivery figures. After a disappointing 13% decline in deliveries in Q1, investors will be keen to see if the company can show improved results. Metrics related to demand for Tesla vehicles, the impact of price adjustments and marketing strategies, as well as information about production issues or supply chain concerns, will have a significant impact on Tesla’s stock price. These figures will also affect broader sentiment toward the electric vehicle sector and its related industries, such as battery manufacturers and charging infrastructure providers.
3. Jerome Powell’s Speech: A Key Look at Monetary Policy
Among the week’s events, Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday at 9:30 AM stands out as the most significant in terms of monetary policy. Amid uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions, his remarks may provide important insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation and the economy. Powell will discuss the future of monetary policy, which will influence interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology, utilities, and financial companies. The timing of his speech, coinciding with the release of manufacturing data, creates the potential for a heightened market reaction if Powell’s comments align with or contradict the incoming economic indicators.
4. Employment Report: The Job Market Under Scrutiny
The most significant data release of the week will be the employment report, which is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 AM. It will provide key figures on the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings—critical indicators of the job market’s health. This event will attract significant attention following the release of ADP’s employment report on Wednesday and weekly unemployment claims data on Thursday. The resilience of the job market will continue to support consumer spending and economic growth, but any signs of weakness could raise concerns among investors and affect expectations for future monetary policy adjustments.
5. Holiday Trading Dynamics: Reduced Liquidity and Volatility
Holiday trading conditions, with early market closures on Thursday and Friday, often lead to reduced liquidity, making the market more susceptible to sharp price movements. Given the number of important economic reports scheduled for this week, including manufacturing data, Tesla’s delivery figures, and the employment report, volatility could increase. Historical patterns show that holiday-shortened weeks are often characterized by lower liquidity, potentially leading to more pronounced price moves on lower volume. The concentration of critical data, combined with the shorter trading schedule, could lead to less time for market reactions and increased sensitivity to news. Traders should be prepared for wider spreads and more volatile price action, particularly around Wednesday’s releases and Friday’s employment report. Holiday timing may also affect institutional positioning decisions and options expirations, adding another layer of complexity to an already data-heavy week.
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