This week, several major events could shape the market’s direction. Here are the five key factors to watch. The key themes will be inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings. Volatility is expected to remain high, so traders and investors should closely monitor the data and market reactions.
1. Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report
On Wednesday at 8:30 AM (ET), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released—a crucial indicator of inflation. After the Fed’s recent comments about maintaining a cautious approach to rate cuts, this report carries significant weight.
Investors will pay close attention to the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. If the data exceeds expectations, it could push back the timeline for rate cuts, leading to increased market volatility.
2. Jerome Powell’s Testimony in Congress
On Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on monetary policy. He will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
Investors will be analyzing his statements for any hints regarding the Fed’s future strategy. Given the strong economic data and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in March, any shifts in Powell’s tone could trigger sharp market moves.
3. Producer Price Index (PPI) – A Leading Inflation Indicator
The Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM (ET). This indicator tracks wholesale prices and often serves as a leading signal for future consumer inflation.
Following the CPI report on Wednesday, the PPI data will provide further insights into inflation trends. If PPI comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns that inflation remains stubborn, increasing pressure on the Fed.
4. Retail Sales Data
On Friday at 8:30 AM (ET), the January retail sales report will be released, offering insights into consumer spending trends after the holiday season.
Consumer spending is a key driver of U.S. economic growth, so any surprises in this report could influence market sentiment about the economy’s health. Given the mixed earnings reports from retailers, this data will be particularly important.
5. Major Earnings Reports
Several major companies are set to release earnings this week. Investors will closely monitor these reports to gauge the economic outlook across different sectors.
Key earnings to watch:
Monday – McDonald's (MCD)
Tuesday – Super Micro Computer (SMCI) (AI hardware leader), Shopify (SHOP), Coca-Cola (KO)
Thursday & Friday – Coinbase (COIN) (crypto), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) (cybersecurity), DraftKings (DKNG) (sports betting)
These reports will provide insights into sectors ranging from artificial intelligence and cybersecurity to consumer spending and digital finance.