Markets enter the second week of July under a cloud of uncertainty, with a lineup of key events that could set the tone for the quarter. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is consolidating, digesting several major developments — from President Trump's newly signed tax-and-spending package to looming trade restrictions — all while the earnings season kicks off and crucial macroeconomic signals are on deck. This convergence could result in elevated volatility and shifting investor sentiment.
Here are five key themes investors will be watching this week.
1. Trade Tensions: The July 9 Deadline
Wednesday, July 9 marks the end of Trump’s 90-day “tariff pause,” and the White House is expected to issue formal letters to trade partners announcing new unilateral trade restrictions. The outcome could significantly impact global markets, especially if major economies such as the EU, Japan, or Mexico are targeted. Sectors with high import dependency — like tech, retail, and consumer goods — are especially vulnerable. The release of the Fed’s meeting minutes on the same day adds another layer of complexity, creating a potentially explosive mix of trade and monetary policy uncertainty.
2. Fed Minutes and Treasury Market Test
Wednesday will also bring the FOMC meeting minutes, with investors closely analyzing the Fed’s stance on interest rates amid lingering inflation concerns. Two major bond auctions — 10-year notes on Wednesday and 30-year bonds on Thursday — will test investor demand for long-term U.S. debt. Weak demand could push yields higher, weighing on rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and high-growth tech. Strong demand, on the other hand, would signal confidence in U.S. fiscal stability and support broader market resilience.
3. Earnings Season Begins: First Signals
Earnings season unofficially kicks off with reports from Delta Air Lines ($DAL) and Conagra Brands ($CAG). Delta’s report will offer insights into domestic and international travel trends, fuel costs, and capacity management amid macro uncertainty. Conagra’s numbers will reflect consumer spending behavior and food inflation dynamics. Together, these early results will help shape investor expectations for the broader earnings season, particularly regarding margin pressures and consumer resilience.
4. AI Semiconductor Pulse Check: Taiwan Semi in Focus
Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) is set to report June and Q2 sales — a critical barometer for AI chip demand. As a key supplier to Nvidia ($NVDA), Broadcom ($AVGO), and Apple ($AAPL), TSM’s results are seen as a proxy for the health of the broader semiconductor and AI ecosystem. Strong results could reinforce bullish AI narratives, while weak figures may raise questions about inventory levels and real demand. Comments on capacity utilization, customer order trends, and future capex will be scrutinized closely.
5. Tesla Under Pressure: Autonomy at a Crossroads
Despite beating Q2 delivery expectations, Tesla ($TSLA) shares continue to slide. The limited June 22 launch of robotaxis in Austin failed to boost sentiment, while issues ranging from executive turnover in the Optimus robot unit to renewed tension between CEO Elon Musk and the Trump administration have added uncertainty. The looming expiration of U.S. EV credits after September and changing zero-emission credit dynamics also threaten Tesla’s business model. Meanwhile, rivals like Uber ($UBER) and Mobileye ($MBLY) are gaining ground, pushing investors to reevaluate their bets in the autonomous vehicle space.
Share this post